🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still